"Faced with Trump, Europe had the choice between trade war and dishonor. It chose dishonor, but..."

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The meeting between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump at the Turnberry golf course in Scotland on July 27 was catastrophic. One wonders how it was possible for the President of the European Commission to agree to participate in such a sordid performance on our behalf. Beyond the shock of this communications disaster, does this episode at least bring something positive to Europeans in their relations with Trump's United States? That seems unlikely: this agreement is likely to have been a fool's bargain for Europe, both on Ukraine and economically.

The Ukrainian argument

To justify this capitulation in the open, the European Commission and the governments that approved this deal emphasize first of all the need to avoid a transatlantic trade war due to the war against Ukraine: everything must be done to prevent a brutal American disengagement in the field of European security.

The argument has weight, indeed, as it is clear that, in key areas such as anti-aircraft defense or intelligence, the American contribution to military support for Ukraine remains irreplaceable in the short term. A total withdrawal would risk having dramatic consequences on the ground, as was already seen in the Kursk pocket last March when Donald Trump cut off the tap of American intelligence .

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But by showing itself so weak in an area (international trade) where the Union, a priori, possesses both decisive economic weight and powerful instruments (this is an exclusive competence of the EU), the latter has probably reinforced the idea, already very present in Donald Trump, that he has no real need to take into account the positions of the European Union on any issue whatsoever, including the Ukrainian issue. This is something the American president did not fail to immediately make clear to Ursula von der Leyen by not associating her with the phone call made on August 6 to certain European leaders as his ultimatum to Vladimir Putin approached its expiry date.

The inconsistency of the European Union

This deal with the EU, obtained with an ease that probably disconcerted Donald Trump himself, has certainly convinced him that he can agree on whatever he wants with the Russian president – the recognition of Crimea and the conquered territories as Russian, the non-entry of Ukraine into NATO or even the EU, its possible demilitarization… – without risking a vigorous reaction from a Union, quite incapable of resisting him, which will in any case end up giving in once again.

In recent weeks, Donald Trump has certainly raised his voice towards the Kremlin for fear of losing face on this issue, but there is no doubt that, fundamentally, his position has not changed: he is still ready to give in to the essential Russian demands as long as Vladimir Putin is willing to agree to a ceasefire that allows him to appear as the one who made peace in Ukraine. This is confirmed by the summit to be held in Alaska on August 15 .

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In other words, by choosing to back down so easily on the issue of customs duties, Europe, far from strengthening its position vis-à-vis Russia, has on the contrary increased the risk of being marginalized even further in the settlement of a Ukrainian issue which is nevertheless essential for its future.

The other main argument in favor of this "deal" is to emphasize the importance of avoiding a dangerous escalation in the trade war in order to provide stability and predictability to European businesses.

Here too, the argument carries weight a priori: faced with an unpredictable Trump, ready for anything, 15% customs duties once and for all are undoubtedly better than taking the risk of ending up with 30% or 50% in the end, while suffering months of paralyzing uncertainty for businesses.

Furthermore, accepting such an asymmetrical deal without retaliating is defensible: the 15% tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on European and other imports are first and foremost a tax on Americans themselves, and especially on the poorest among them. And their inflationary effect is likely to be at least as negative for the US economy itself as for that of its trading partners. There would be little reason to want to voluntarily inflict the same kind of punishment on ourselves.

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But the problem is that by giving in so quickly to a bully like Trump, we risk not having peace for very long. This easy success should indeed whet his appetite and encourage him to push his advantage further. The fate of important sectors such as pharmaceuticals and even the automobile industry has not yet truly been settled after the "agreement" of July 27. Trump may also be encouraged by the inconsistency of the European position to return to the charge on health standards in the food sector or to launch a new offensive against European standards in the digital sector.

This is all the more so since the European Commission has deemed it useful to accompany its already exorbitant concessions on customs duties with ill-considered promises regarding investments in the United States and purchases of gas and arms. These are promises that it does not actually have the means to keep, since these investments and purchases depend exclusively on the goodwill of private actors or Member States.

These untenable promises risk giving Donald Trump ample excuses to launch a renewed offensive in the coming months, as he has already begun to do. Despite this "deal," there will likely be neither stability nor predictability for European businesses in the United States as long as Trump is in the White House.

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Could we have done otherwise? Yes, but that would have meant starting earlier and finally getting rid of the Atlanticist software that has structured Ursula von der Leyen's entire policy for the past six years. By refusing to mobilize Europeans to stand up to Donald Trump from his first threats at the beginning of the year, by not seeking to build an alliance with other developed countries to provide a coordinated response to the Trump administration's aggression, by squandering the opportunity of the EU-China summit on July 24th in a desire to align themselves with an aggressive American policy toward the other major power of the moment, the leaders of the European Union have not created the conditions for a more favorable balance of power vis-à-vis the President of the United States. And this is all the more so since, at the same time, their inaction regarding the genocide in Gaza and their "Fortress Europe" migration policy also cut the Union off from the countries of the South.

By choosing to capitulate at Turnberry, Ursula von der Leyen and the governments that supported her thought they were buying a lasting trade peace and Trump's good graces with Ukraine. But in doing so, they probably made the same kind of miscalculation with Trump on trade that Laval and Chamberlain made with Hitler in Munich on territorial matters... To paraphrase the phrase attributed to Winston Churchill: faced with Trump, the European Union had the choice between trade war and dishonor; it chose dishonor, but that will probably not prevent it from still suffering both the trade war and American betrayal in Ukraine...

BIO EXPRESS

Guillaume Duval , former editor-in-chief of “Alternatives économiques”, is an advisor to the Jacques-Delors Institute and former writer for HR/VP Josep Borrell.

Le Nouvel Observateur

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